According to the Ontario Diabetes Database (ODD), in 2011, approximately 40,000 or one-in-ten Simcoe Muskoka adults (20 years and older) were living with diabetes. According to the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT), by 2026 adult diabetes prevalence in Simcoe Muskoka is expected to rise to one-in-six with approximately 80,000 adults living with the condition.
The age-standardized adult diabetes prevalence rate in Simcoe Muskoka has been consistently lower than the provincial rate over the ten-year period from 2002 to 2011. While diabetes prevalence has been increasing both locally and provincially over this ten-year period, the Simcoe Muskoka rate has actually been rising at a faster pace than the province as a whole. The average annual per cent increase in the age-standardized adult diabetes prevalence rate in Simcoe Muskoka was 5.7% (5.5%, 5.9%) compared with an average annual increase of 4.9% (4.6%, 5.2%) for Ontario.
In 2011, adult diabetes prevalence in Simcoe Muskoka was highest among those 65 to 74 years of age (19 per 100 among males and 15 per 100 among females) and lowest among those 20 to 34 years of age (2 per 100 among males and 3 per 100 among females). Adult diabetes prevalence increased significantly with each age-group until 75 years of age when the prevalence rate dropped by more than 40 per cent. This may be explained by the higher rates of premature mortality usually experienced by those living with diabetes. Diabetes prevalence was significantly higher among males when compared to females for all age groups between 35 and 74 years of age.
According to the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), from 2007 to 2014, the prevalence of diabetes among Simcoe Muskoka adults 50 years and older was 12% (10.4%, 13.2%). Diabetes prevalence was significantly higher among adults (50+) living in the lowest 20% of household income when compared to those living in the highest 20% of household income.
The rate of new diabetes cases (also called the incidence rate) provides a measure of the risk of developing diabetes over a given period of time. This is different from the diabetes prevalence rates presented above, which provide a measure of how wide spread diabetes is over a given period of time. In 2011, there were over 3,000 new cases of diabetes diagnosed among Simcoe Muskoka adults (20+) which equates to an age-standardized incidence rate of 6.5 (6.3, 6.7) per 1,000. The annual adult diabetes incidence rate in Simcoe Muskoka for the ten-year period between 2002 and 2011 fluctuated from a low of 6 per 1,000 to a high of 8 per 1,000 with a median of 7 per 1,000. The Simcoe Muskoka incidence rate was lower than the provincial incidence rate for nine out of the last ten years of available data.
In 2011, adult diabetes incidence in Simcoe Muskoka is highest among those 65 to 74 years of age (16 per 1,000 among males and 12.5 per 1,000 among females) and lowest among those 20 to 34 years of age (1 per 1,000 among males and 2 per 1,000 among females). Adult diabetes incidence is significantly higher among males when compared to females for those 50 years of age and older.
According to the Diabetes Population Risk Tool (DPoRT) an adult (20+) living in Simcoe Muskoka that did not have diabetes in 2011 has a 10% (9.7%, 11.2%) chance of developing diabetes in the ten year time period from 2012 to 2021. The risk of developing diabetes is highest among males aged 45 to 64 years (19% (15.9%, 21.5%)) and highest among females aged 65 years and older (15% (13.7%, 16.2%)).